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Monday 14 February 2011

VETTORI'S FOURTH INNINGS STRUGGLES

Given Daniel Vettori’s long-standing role as saviour of New Zealand cricket, as a Black Caps fan, asking questions of him leaves a vaguely treacherous aftertaste in your mouth. For a while not so long ago, he acted as captain, selector and premier all-rounder, such was his standing in the game. With the bat, he has perhaps over-achieved with 6 test centuries, often made as a recovery from unpromising positions, including one in the recently completed test against Pakistan. And with ball in hand, he has been New Zealand’s premier spin bowler for over a decade. For much of that time, he has also been New Zealand’s best bowler of any category (only Cairns and Bond could be said to have performed better than him over this period). He’s acted as both an attacking weapon and as a stock bowler, often performing both roles at the same time, given that the New Zealand attack has often been mediocre. Bowling is his core skill, the one that he was picked for, the only New Zealand spinner of note since his debut. As a one-day bowler, his credentials are unquestionable. His change in pace, length and drift as well as a well-disguised arm ball make him a parsimonious and dangerous bowler in the shorter formats of the game, highlighted by his well deserved world #1 ranking in ODIs. In tests, it’s a different story. Without the need to try and attack him, the subtleties that are so effective in the one-day game prove ineffective in tests. Basically, Vettori is unable to get out top-order batsmen unless they attack him. Vettori himself has acknowledged that test match bowling is something that he needs to work on.  While he has taken over 340 test wickets to go with his 4000 odd runs, he has often failed in the primary role of the spinner, to win matches by running through a team on the fourth and fifth day. The latest example of this was the 2nd test between NZ and Pakistan. He bowled 34 overs in Pakistan’s second innings, on a wearing fifth day track that Pakistan’s part timers had managed to extract considerable turn from. While he went for fewer than 2 runs an over, he picked up only one victim, late in the day. This lack of success at being able to run through teams is what means Vettori is only merely a very good test cricketer, not a great one.
Above: A sight not seen enough in the fourth innings. Vettori celebrating a wicket.

If we look at his spin bowling contemporizes, there are five spinners with over 300 test wickets (Vettori, Warne, Muralitharan, Kumble and Harbhajan). All have a much greater success in the fourth innings than Vettori. There can be arguments made to defend him, like he plays for a weak team who seldom score enough runs to pressure the opposition, that his style of bowling is more based on drift and changes in pace than extravagant turn and he lacks quality bowlers who can help him (either another spinner like Kumble had with Harbhajan or a quality fast bowler like Warne had with McGrath or Gillespie). It can even be argued that his style of bowling is not well suited to New Zealand pitches (where he has played about half his tests) or for that matter pitches around the world which have generally been flat and batsmen friendly. They are all valid points but they still do not hide the fact that he has failed to win matches for New Zealand, even when all these factors are taken into account. The other four spinners mentioned above all have a better average in the fourth innings than their overall average. On the other hand, Vettori averages five runs a wicket more in the fourth innings than his overall average and has a strike-rate of 90 compared to a career strike rate of 78, which means he has to bowl 15 overs on average to pick up a wicket in the fourth innings. That he has maintained the mantle of New Zealand’s premier spinner for so long highlights the lack of real spin talent in this country. No challengers look likely and no-one competes with his first class record. While he may be less than potent at test level, he’s still remains New Zealand’s best option.

 Records in the fourth innings
 Vettori in 25 fourth innings has 33 wickets at an average of 39.03 and a strike rate of 90.3. (Overall average 33.98 at 77.8).
 Warne in 53 fourth innings captured 138 wickets at an average of 23.14 at a strike rate of 52.9. (Overall average 25.41 at 57.4).
 Muralitharan in 35 fourth innings captured 106 wickets at an average of 21.01 at a strike rate of 50. (Overall average 22.72 at 55).
 Kumble in 35 fourth innings captured 94 wickets at an average of 22.39 at a strike rate of 51.8. (Overall average 29.64 at 65.9).
 Harbhajan in 27 fourth innings captured 43 wickets at an average of 27.62 at a strike rate of 66.9. (Overall average 31.85 at 67.3).

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